Blog

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                    [post_date] => 2022-09-08 12:47:36
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                    [post_content] => Ryan Yamada, CFP®, Senior Wealth Planner

We’ve all heard the conventional wisdom when it comes to claiming Social Security: you should wait as long as you can before claiming benefits. Wait right up to age 70, if possible. After all, that’s when you would get the greatest monthly benefit.

But that may not be the right move for some.

What if I told you that, in some cases, taking your benefit sooner than later was the most ideal thing to do? I know it seems counterintuitive. But there are a few specific scenarios where that is just the advice I would give to clients.

Let’s dig into a few of these scenarios individually.

Scenario #1: For Surviving Spouses

On a few somber occasions, we have had clients who have passed away before getting to fully enjoy their retirement. And while the earliest that someone can claim off of their worker or spousal benefit is at age 62, there is an exception for surviving spouses to claim a widower benefit as early as 60. Like a spousal benefit, the surviving widow is eligible for their deceased spouse’s Full Retirement Age amount. Claiming any earlier than Full Retirement Age reduces this amount. However, one unique strategy is that should the surviving spouse also have their own earnings history, claiming off a widower’s benefit could then allow one to delay their own worker’s benefit. Here’s an example to help illustrate. In this example, by continuing to delay their own worker benefits, the surviving spouse significantly increases their lifetime amounts. Additionally, recognizing the opportunity to claim benefits early using a survivor’s benefit could add extra years of cash flow and tens of thousands of dollars.

Scenario #2: You’re Entering Retirement During a Turbulent Market

You’re ready to retire. You’ve planned well and you have your spending plan all laid out. You’ve even decided to wait before filing for your Social Security benefits – allowing your investments to create an ‘income bridge’ - so that you can maximize your future monthly payment. Like many who are able to retire early, this is an ideal scenario for most retirees and one that we often recommend...in most years. But wait … it’s 2022. The market is down. And your portfolio has dropped 25%. Sometimes life doesn’t quite go according to plan. But that’s okay, it’s not time to panic. After all, the market was built to rebound. We just need to look at other ways to manage until that happens. In this scenario, we might consider taking Social Security earlier than anticipated. Especially for those clients without a cash buffer, access to home equity, or other means of ‘dry powder’, selling investments during a bear market is something we try to avoid. Tapping into your Social Security can provide much needed cash flow and allow your investment portfolio some time to recover. You’ll obviously take a slight hit on your lifetime Social Security benefit, but if that amount is smaller than the potential gain your investments could make over time, it’s a smarter play in the long run.

Scenario #3: You Wouldn’t Break Even by Waiting

When a pre-retiree is looking for advice on when to begin claiming Social Security, one common way to compare strategies is to calculate their “break-even” age. That’s essentially the age that they would need to live to in order to make the delay worthwhile. When waiting until age 70 to begin claiming Social Security, most people would need to live into their late-70s or even their early-80s to hit that point. If you have good reason to believe that longevity is not on your side, and you have no spouse or children who would depend on your benefit, you might want to consider claiming your Social Security sooner rather than later. While we never want to bet against our lives, it’s important to be realistic with your situation.

Talk to a Professional

Remember that a retirement income plan is a mixture of both financial and non-financial components unique to you. When considering any of these scenarios, insist on working with a Fiduciary advisor who specializes in this field. If you need help finding a financial advisor in your area, we can help. Contact us today. H2 subhead

Need Help With Social Security? Give Us a Call

Social Security can be complicated. Talk to a qualified financial advisor today to get professional advice today. Need help finding a financial advisor in your area? Give us a call today so we can match you with an advisor who will put your needs first. This blog is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific legal, tax, or other professional advice. For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor. Ryan Yamada is a non-registered associate of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. [post_title] => Claiming Your Social Security Benefits Early: When It May Not Pay to Wait [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => claiming-your-social-security-benefits-early-when-it-may-not-pay-to-wait [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-23 07:27:45 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-23 12:27:45 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?p=65200 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66884 [post_author] => 181803 [post_date] => 2022-08-31 10:21:25 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-08-31 15:21:25 [post_content] => Scott Budd, CFP® Senior Wealth Planner  Choosing the right Medicare plan is one of the most important decisions seniors are faced with. It’s also one of the most difficult. The health care system isn't user-friendly to begin with. Stack all the Medicare options on top of that and you've got yourself a challenge.  That's why it's a good idea to consult a qualified professional about which plan works best for you. It's tricky terrain and it's something that may be difficult to navigate on your own. I recommend raising the issue with your planner 12 to 18 months in advance of enrolling in Medicare.  Wondering when you need to sign up for Medicare? For most people, the enrollment age is 65. But take note: There's a seven-month enrollment window three months before and four months after your 65th birthday, after which you may be tagged with a late enrollment fee. You can use this handy flowchart to find out exactly when you should enroll. 

What Medicare Plans Cover (and What They Don't)

Medicare, as you will see, is quintessential alphabet soup. Here's what you need to know about the plans – what they cover, what they don't, and how much they cost.  Part A - Pretty much everyone gets Part A. Why? Because the coverage is free for people who paid taxes during their working careers. This covers in-patient hospitalization as well as, in some cases, skilled nursing facility care and hospice and home health care.  Part B. This pays for your outpatient care by a doctor, medical tests, any drugs that are administered in a doctor's office and preventative measures like flu shots. Also included are ambulance services, durable medical equipment and mental health services. The average monthly premium in 2022 is $170.10.1   What's not covered in Part A or Part B: medical services outside the U.S., long term care, dental and optical care, dentures, cosmetic and other elective surgeries, acupuncture, hearing aids and routine foot care. While Medicare pays for care in a skilled nursing facility or rehab center that's preceded by a hospital stay, it does not cover so-called residential nursing home care.  Part C. Commonly known as Medicare Advantage, Part C is an alternative to Part A and Part B. For the record, Part A and Part B are often referred to as "Original Medicare." Medicare Advantage can be a good fit for seniors who are healthy and who don't mind being restricted to a specific network of doctors, health care providers, and hospitals. In the Medicare world, it's the closest equivalent to private insurance.  Depending on the state where you reside, a Medicare Advantage plan can cover traditional costs associated with original Medicare and often throws in extras like dental, vision, hearing, prescription drugs and gym memberships.  The plans, administered by a Medicare-approved private insurer, tend to have lower out-of-pocket costs. The premium itself is paid by Medicare. One hitch: Many regions in the country — rural areas, in particular — have limited or no Medicare Advantage providers. Availability could literally depend on the zip code you live in.  Part D. This helps cover outpatient prescription costs. Part D can also stand for difficult. Sometimes, it's not going to be the cheapest option when it comes to purchasing medications. Discount programs offered through companies like GoodRx and Costco are worth exploring. It's also a good practice to ask for a generic instead of a brand name drug if there's a safe alternative.  The good news? Part D providers issue a "formulary," or list of drugs, each year so you will always know what your plan covers and what it doesn't. The drug list has several cost-sharing tiers. The tier your medication is on will affect how much it costs. The lowest tier, Tier 1, involves generics and has the lowest co-payment. The current average cost of a basic Part D plan premium is $32.08 per month.2  Medicare Supplement Insurance. This insurance, known as Medigap, does precisely what the name implies – it helps to fill in any gaps not covered by original Medicare. Some policies, administered by private companies, even include medical care outside the U.S.  Medigap offers several different plans, with Plan G being the most comprehensive and far-reaching. The only things Medigap Plan G doesn't cover are the Part B deductible and anything related to drugs. The monthly premium for a Plan G policy ranges from $100 to $300. 

Have Medicare Questions? We Can Help

Medicare can be confusing. Talk to a qualified professional today to get professional advice on which Medicare plan is best for your needs. Need help finding a financial advisor in your area? Give us a call today so we can match you with an advisor who will put your needs first.     1 U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, “Medicare Costs,” https://www.medicare.gov/basics/costs/medicare-costs 2 U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, “CMS Releases Projected 2023 Medicare Basic Part B Average Premium.” July 29, 2022, https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/news-alert/cms-releases-2023-projected-medicare-basic-part-d-average-premium Scott Budd is a non-registered affiliate of Cetera Advisor Networks. [post_title] => Which Medicare Plan Is Best for You? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => which-medicare-plan-is-best-for-you [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-08-31 10:34:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-08-31 15:34:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?p=65184 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66866 [post_author] => 182131 [post_date] => 2022-08-25 13:54:33 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-08-25 18:54:33 [post_content] => By Craig Lemoine, Ph.D., CFP®, Director of Consumer Investment Research
“How much do I need for retirement?” It’s a question I often hear, and one that seems straightforward enough to tackle. Unfortunately, the answer isn’t quite so simple. Your financial needs in retirement can depend on dozens of factors – some known and some unknown. Among these are your longevity, lifestyle, comfort with market performance, sequence of return risk, current health, housing plan, proportion of fixed to variable expenses, proximity to children and so much more. One or two million dollars may seem like a lot of money to have set aside for retirement. But if a retiree faces some rough initial returns and health care costs, they may soon find themselves unable to live their planned retirement.

A Retirement Reality Check

The concept of retirement continues to evolve with the world around us. We’re not likely to have the retirement that our parents or grandparents have had. Fewer Americans will receive a steady pension than in the past.1 We tend to live longer than a generation ago. Housing costs have hit all-time highs.2 And the market has seen unprecedented volatility in the past few years. Inflation continues to eat away at our real spending power, creating new and dynamic retirement challenges. Even with all known and unknown retirement factors answered, “How much I need to retire” last year may be wildly different from “How much do I need to stay retired?” in tougher conditions. Retirement has multiple factors and requires in-depth analysis. Simple heuristics – such as planning on spending 70% of your current income or being able to spend down a fixed percentage of your portfolio annually – fall short when life gets in the way. Answers to questions surrounding “Can I retire on a million dollars?” or “Can I retire with two million dollars?” often fail to consider sequence of return, housing, longevity, health or family risks faced in retirement.

Focus on Your Retirement Plan Rather Than a Magic Number

A better question than “What’s my magic number?” would be “How do I plan for retirement?“ Working with a qualified financial advisor to develop a holistic retirement plan can help prepare you for the road ahead. Your financial advisor can help you plan for challenges you may face in retirement, such as spending, efficient savings, taxes, inflation, debt management, Social Security and Medicare. They can help you determine your risk tolerance and build an investment portfolio you will be more likely to tick with when times get tough. They can also help you balance your savings with your spending and work through the trade-offs that come with retirement. Consider these five steps when developing a customized and meaningful retirement plan: 1.     Create a cash flow statement. A cash flow statement should show dollars in and dollars out of your personal finances. Consider tracking your actual expenses for a few months to get a concrete handle of how you live today. Income should include money earned from your job, interest from a bank, dividends from stocks, coupons from bonds and any gifts or other sources of cash. When tracking expenses consider two categories: fixed and discretionary. Fixed expenses are those you’re required to pay as well as those that provide basic needs, such as where you live, what you eat and how you get around. Examples of fixed expenses include rent or mortgage payments, insurance premiums, groceries, heating and electric bills. Discretionary expenses include money spent on travel, dinners out, savings and retirement plan contributions or occasional future purchases and upgrades. Your expenses will certainly change in retirement but documenting them today will give you an idea of how much your family spends. And spending helps open conversations about the amount needed to comfortably retire. 2.     Build a personal balance sheet. A personal balance sheet should record assets (items you own, use or enjoy) and liabilities (amounts you owe institutions or other people). Consider breaking assets into three columns: cash, investment assets and personal property. Cash includes checking, savings, money market accounts, CDs, physical currency and other banking or credit union products. Investment assets include retirement plans, investment or savings accounts, annuity or insurance cash values, or any other asset you may use towards a financial goal. Personal property would be any asset not previously mentioned such as real estate for personal use, home furnishings, vehicles, and possessions you would not consider using towards a financial goal. Liabilities can be broken into secured and unsecured categories. Secured liabilities are tied to assets (such as car loans and mortgages) while unsecured liabilities are the type of debt you owe but would not result in an immediate asset forfeiture. Unsecured liabilities include credit card debt, student loans or any personal loans. Payment terms should be footnoted on a balance sheet, including number of payments remaining, monthly liability and interest rate information. Your balance sheet helps inform your ability to retire by painting a picture of resources and debt obligations. This sheet will almost always change during retirement but creating it ahead of time will empower you to make wiser decisions. 3.     Get a copy of your Social Security statement. Social Security is a federal retirement plan originally created under the Social Security Act of 1935. Most Americans are covered by Social Security. The amount of estimated Social Security benefits available at different ages can help inform your retirement decisions. To get an estimate of your future retirement benefits, you can visit the Social Security Administration’s website. Social Security planning can be quite sophisticated. Your starting age is a function of types of assets, family longevity, marital status and your current health. At five years from retirement, an estimate of Social Security will help you plan for the next few decades. 4.     Calculate your Medicare premiums. Health care may be one of your largest expenses in retirement. It’s important to understand the costs and plan for how to pay for health care after you retire. Medicare is the health care plan offered to most retirees when they turn 65. Plan ahead by getting an idea of the coverage offered and possible premiums and co-pays you may face. You can check your Medicare eligibility and calculate the potential premiums you might pay on the Medicare website. 5.     Identify your retirement income streams. Taking inventory of future income streams will help inform retirement decisions as you get closer to the big day. Get updated statements of any future pension, defined benefit or annuity payments you will receive in retirement. Benefit amounts may change based on current interest rates, employer investment performance, divorce or other life events.

Talk to a Financial Advisor Today

Meet with a qualified financial planner to develop your plan for retirement. Consider your current level of savings, comfort with investment risk, lifestyle goals and ability to retire before leaving the workplace. A Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) professional or Investment Advisor can work with you to build a plan before you reach retirement. A wealth management team can build your investment and insurance strategy, helping to eliminate any health care and spending gaps before you retire. A professional can help navigate tradeoffs between spending today, safety for tomorrow and bequest motives. They can help develop a housing plan in retirement and work with you to find meaning and purpose in retirement. Creating a financial plan before pulling the retirement lever will boost your confidence and give you a path of savings and spending for the future. If you’re not currently working with a financial advisor, we can help. Contact us today and we’ll help you find a qualified professional in your area.   1 Economic Policy Institute, “The State of American Retirement Savings.” 12/10/2019. https://www.epi.org/publication/the-state-of-american-retirement-savings/ 2 Forbes Advisor, “Housing Market Predictions in 2022: When Will Prices Drop?” 7/1/2022. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/housing-market-predictions/ Craig Lemoine is not affiliated or registered with Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. Any information provided by Craig Lemoine is in no way related to Cetera Advisor Networks LLC or its registered representatives. [post_title] => How Much Do I Need to Retire? Planning for Your Unique Retirement Needs [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => how-much-do-i-need-to-retire-planning-for-your-unique-retirement-needs [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-08-29 14:18:46 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-08-29 19:18:46 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?p=65170 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66845 [post_author] => 90034 [post_date] => 2022-08-15 13:36:20 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-08-15 18:36:20 [post_content] => Published by Christina Hester Snyder, Partner and Wealth Advisor   Gambling may be all fun and games when you’re in Las Vegas, but in the real world, there are certain things you never want to risk; your retirement savings, your kids, and your long-term health are just a few. While most of us understand the importance of saving for retirement and taking care of our children, few Americans incorporate the possibility of long-term care (LTC) into their overall financial plans. This is understandable because it’s easy to focus on building your savings and not worry about future healthcare needs when you’re healthy and thriving. However, research shows that nearly 70% of today’s 65-year-olds are going to need some form of LTC.[1] Regardless of what your health looks like today, creating a LTC plan now will allow you to be prepared and build a plan that works for you and your family—saving time, money, and stress in the future. This guide will help you learn more about your options so you can retire with confidence.

How Much Does Long-Term Care Cost?

The unfortunate reality is that LTC costs are so high that they could potentially wipe out a bulk of your retirement funds. In 2022, the national average cost for a nursing home is about $8,000 per month for a semi-private room and $9,300 for a private room![2] To make matters worse, women often pay significantly more than men for LTC because of their longer life expectancy. Women usually require LTC for 3.7 years (or around 44 months), versus 2.2 years (or around 26 months) for men.[3] When the costs are added up, women will spend around $409,200 and men will spend $241,800 on LTC alone. And this amount is only projected to increase. By 2032, the cost for a private room in a nursing home is expected to jump to $12,505 per month, and assisted living will reach $6,229 per month, compared to $4,500 today.[4] These costs can vary dramatically based on the level of care and amenities required, as well as the size of the room, and your geographic location. The first step in planning for LTC is to decide what type of care you would prefer.

What’s Your Ideal Long-Term Care Situation?

If you have a family history or early signs of Alzheimer’s or dementia, or if you suffer from a chronic disease that will require ongoing care or daily assistance, consider facilities that offer the specific care you’ll need. Be sure to share your thoughts with your family, so that everyone is aware of your wishes. Would you prefer to live in a nursing home, or would you like nurses and assistants to come to your residence? Or do you want a religious community of care? There are several preferences to consider when building your LTC plan. Having the option to make these choices yourself lends much-needed autonomy to your LTC plan. If you wait until you need it, you may not be mentally or physically capable of making the decision yourself, or the size of your savings might determine the care you receive. Whether you’re worried about potential health concerns or want to protect your hard-earned wealth, it’s important to understand the LTC insurance options available to you and whether or not a policy makes sense for your lifestyle and needs. Planning ahead can also help to alleviate any burden on your kids if your health declines more rapidly than expected.

Your Long-Term Care Plan

LTC coverage isn’t cheap, but it pales in comparison to LTC costs. Here are some options to consider when creating your LTC strategy.

1. Traditional Long-Term Care Insurance

With traditional long-term care insurance, you pay a premium in exchange for LTC coverage if/when it is needed. If you need LTC at some point, the policy provides you with money to pay for it. If, on the other hand, you never need LTC, you will receive no benefits. Much like a term life insurance contract, it is typically a “use it or lose it” policy. As with other insurance policies, you will have some coverage choices to make.

Customized Coverage

You can choose the level of insurance you want and select the daily benefit amount for care in a nursing home. Most policies also include home-care coverage as that type of care is usually less expensive for the insurance company. In order to choose the right coverage amounts, you need to know what the cost of long-term care looks like in your state. For example, a private room at a nursing home in Maryland costs an average of $12,532 per month, while that same room costs $10,307 per month in Nevada.[5]

Length of Coverage

You must also decide on the length of time you want the benefits to be paid. Common options are one, two, three, or five years, or for your lifetime. Logically, the longer the benefit period, the higher the premiums you will need to pay.

Benefit Stipulations

Your policy will also indicate “benefit triggers,” or conditions which must exist in order to receive benefits from the insurance company. A tax-qualified plan only pays benefits once you are unable to perform two of six activities of daily living without substantial assistance for at least 90 days, or have a cognitive impairment like Alzheimer’s. Non-tax-qualified plans may have less restrictive benefit triggers, but you won’t get the tax benefits that come from a qualified plan.

Inflation and Premiums

If you want, you can have your benefits increase with inflation to match future care costs by adding an inflation rider. Keep in mind that premiums for any LTC policy are not set in stone and can rise over time based on increases in LTC prices, presuming the insurance company is successful in getting the state to approve the rate increase.

2. Life Insurance With a Long-Term Care Rider

The use-it-or-lose-it nature of a traditional LTC policy can sometimes feel like a waste if you don’t end up needing LTC benefits. Because of this, several hybrid products have emerged. One very popular solution is a life insurance policy with a LTC rider. This strategy is enticing because if LTC is needed, the funds are available through your policy’s death benefit. If you don’t spend the total benefit available, your beneficiaries will receive the balance upon your death (tax-free), and thus no money is wasted. If you need life insurance, adding LTC coverage as a rider may be a good option for you. This way, someone will benefit from the premiums you pay, whether it is in the form of LTC benefits or death benefits.  Depending on the type of life policy purchased, it may also accumulate a cash value, meaning the insured individual can access it if needed, allowing them to recoup a portion or all of their premiums paid if the coverage is no longer desired.

3. Annuity With a Long-Term Care Rider

If you don’t need life insurance, another combination product may be better suited to your situation. If you purchase a fixed annuity, you may have the option of adding a LTC rider onto the contract. Since 2010, the IRS allows for the LTC portion to be used tax-free.[6] After purchasing the annuity, you would select the amount of LTC coverage you want, often two to three times the face value of the annuity, as well as the length of time you want coverage. Finally, you have to decide if you want inflation protection. This option makes money available to you if you need LTC. Otherwise, you can cash out the annuity when it matures (at which point you would lose your LTC coverage) or let it accumulate and ultimately pass on as an asset to your heirs. Obtaining LTC coverage through an annuity can be appealing because it is generally less expensive than stand-alone insurance and you can receive coverage without medical underwriting. Annuities tend to be less common than the other choices, though, because of the current low-interest rates and the large up-front cash payment.

4. Partially or Fully Self-Insure

Another option to consider is partially or fully self-insuring. With this strategy, you would simply create a savings or investment plan specifically for future healthcare needs. This can be done with any number of strategies. By contributing a specific amount every month, you can build a contingency fund for whatever healthcare expenses come your way. If you end up not needing LTC, the money is still yours and can be used for your living costs, unexpected expenses, or an inheritance for your heirs. This can be an effective option for clients who are in good health with no major concerns in their family medical history and expect to need little to no serious LTC in the future but still want to be protected in the event of unexpected healthcare needs.  Just remember that a need for long-term care can be totally unexpected and occur at any time, regardless of age, so planning to self-insure can put you at risk of not having the funds when needed.

Start Planning Today

Whether you are nearing retirement or have already reached that stage of life, it’s not too late to start planning. LTC is just one aspect of planning for retirement, but it’s an important part of the process. We understand it can be stressful or confusing, but that’s why our team at Jacob William Advisory is here to help you navigate your options using our comprehensive financial planning services. If you have questions about LTC or want to make sure you have the coverage you need, contact our office by calling 410-821-6724, emailing info@jacobwilliam.com, or schedule an appointment at https://www.jacobwilliam.com/insights/#contact. You can also take the retirement readiness quiz or download one of our free guides for more information: https://www.jacobwilliam.com/insights/free-guides/.

About Christina Hester Snyder

Christina is a Partner and Wealth Advisor at Jacob William Advisory with a storied 20-plus year career in financial services. Christina is known for her commitment to her clients and is dedicated to helping them alleviate their financial fears through education and planning that goes far beyond investments. She believes in a comprehensive approach that addresses all facets of planning, including wealth transfer, insurance, taxes, investments, estate and trust planning, retirement, risk management, and business planning. Christina graduated from the University of Baltimore with a Bachelor of Science in Business with an emphasis in international business. She also holds many professional designations, including CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, Chartered Financial Consultant® (ChFC®), Retirement Income Certified Professional® (RIPC®), and Certified IRA Services Professional (CISP). She is an active member of her community and is involved in many professional and nonprofit groups, including acting as the president of the Maryland chapter of Women in Insurance & Financial Services and serving on the board of a nonprofit that helps Maryland families with financial hardships. To learn more about Christina, please click here. [1]https://www.singlecare.com/blog/news/long-term-care-statistics/ [2]https://www.theseniorlist.com/nursing-homes/costs/ [3] https://acl.gov/ltc/basic-needs/how-much-care-will-you-need [4]https://www.genworth.com/aging-and-you/finances/cost-of-care.html [5] https://www.genworth.com/aging-and-you/finances/cost-of-care.html [6]https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/long-term-care-annuity [post_title] => How Will You Pay for Long-Term Care? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => how-will-you-pay-for-long-term-care [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-08-15 13:36:20 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-08-15 18:36:20 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.jacobwilliam.com/?p=66845 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66823 [post_author] => 90034 [post_date] => 2022-08-04 14:44:31 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-08-04 19:44:31 [post_content] => Published by Daniel Morrison, Founding Partner and Wealth Advisor   Staying with one employer for your entire career is now a relic of the past. American workers will have an average of 2.9 jobs between the ages of 35 to 44, and 1.9 jobs between ages 45 to 52.[1] Because you switched jobs several times throughout your career, you likely have several employer-sponsored retirement accounts. As a busy professional, you probably haven’t given them much thought, but these accounts may cause some serious headaches down the road as you find yourself juggling various investment decisions, fees, and rules for each account. Luckily, consolidating your accounts allows you to streamline the management of your retirement savings accounts and possibly maximize your returns. In this article, we will break down how account consolidation works and why it could be a good option for you.

Understanding Your Consolidation Options

Different retirement plans have their own benefits and their own set of rules. It’s important to first get an understanding of the rollover options available to you. You may or may not be able to roll some types of accounts into others; some accounts only allow rollovers once every 12 months, while others only let you roll over after two years.[2] A financial advisor can look into this for you, or you can contact the plan provider to find out.

Is Consolidating Right for You?

How do you know if it’s time to consolidate? There are a few things you’ll want to consider before consolidating retirement accounts:
  • What kinds of benefits and features do your retirement accounts offer?
  • Are there similar investment options in all your accounts?
  • What are the fees associated with each of your accounts?
  • Can you roll over previous plans to a new employer? Or do you need to move to a self-directed retirement account?
You’ll want to do your research to answer these questions before you make any moves. And remember, you don’t necessarily need to consolidate everything into one. You can merge some while keeping others open. What’s best for you will depend on your specific situation and goals for retirement.

Benefits of Consolidating Multiple Retirement Plans

When it comes time for retirement, there are several benefits of consolidating your accounts. Here are just a few benefits to consider:
  • Reduced investment fees: Fewer retirement accounts can mean fewer fees. Instead of paying fees for each of your account management services, you’ll only pay one—meaning more of your money can grow.
  • More opportunities to save: You can’t contribute to an old employer-sponsored 401(k). You will need to roll over the account to a new 401(k) or a self-directed account so you can continue contributing to that retirement fund.
  • Reduced administrative work for you: Fewer accounts mean simpler management. You won’t need to worry about managing investments and documentation across different platforms. For example, instead of three monthly statements, you could have just one. You’ll also be able to see all of your investments in one location for more cohesive planning.
  • Simpler portfolio rebalancing: When it comes time to rebalance your portfolio, having all your accounts consolidated makes it easier to calculate your asset allocations.
  • Easier calculations and withdrawals of required minimum distributions: If you have multiple 401(k)s at retirement, you will eventually need to take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from each of those accounts.[3] When juggling multiple accounts, you risk missing a required minimum distribution or withdrawing the incorrect total amount, for which the IRS can make you pay a penalty. Having a single account makes RMDs much easier.
  • A clear picture of your money: Consolidating your accounts allows you to clearly understand how well your investments are working for you, while enabling you to easily tweak the account to meet your retirement goals.
Lastly, one of the biggest benefits of consolidation is saving time. Time is one of your most valuable assets. Having one consolidated account means you’ll spend less time managing all your accounts and free up more time and energy for doing what you love.

We Can Help You Consolidate

Although consolidating accounts may lead to greater returns and less headache in the future, the process can be challenging to navigate. If you have multiple retirement plans, we at Jacob William Advisory would love to talk about how we can help you optimize your plan. Contact our office by calling 410-821-6724 or emailing info@jacobwilliam.com or schedule an appointment at https://www.jacobwilliam.com/insights/#contact.  

About Dan

Daniel Morrison is a Founding Partner and Wealth Advisor of Jacob William Advisory, a wealth management firm whose sole mission is to service their clients’ needs beyond their expectations. Dan Morrison has 27 years of industry experience, and for the past decade, he has been committed to building Jacob William Advisory into one of the foremost wealth advisory firms. Dan graduated from Towson University with a bachelor’s degree of finance in economics and obtained his master’s degree in finance from the University of Baltimore. He is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional and holds the Chartered Financial Consultant® (ChFC®), Chartered Life Underwriter® (CLU®), and Chartered Advisor in Senior Living® (CASL®) designations. He and his wife Beth reside outside of Baltimore, Maryland, and have three wonderful children. Dan is involved in his church and he enjoys spending time with his family, playing golf, and sailing. A good book is also never far from his reach. Learn more about Dan by connecting with him on LinkedIn.   Distributions from traditional IRA’s and employer sponsored retirement plans are taxed as ordinary income and, if taken prior to reaching 59½, may be subject to additional 10% IRS tax penalty.  Some IRA’s have contribution limits and tax consequences for early withdrawals. For complete details, consult your tax advisor or attorney. [1] https://www.thebalancecareers.com/how-often-do-people-change-jobs-2060467 [2] https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-tege/rollover_chart.pdf [3]https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-required-minimum-distributions-rmds [post_title] => Do You Need Help Consolidating Old 401(k) Accounts? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => do-you-need-help-consolidating-old-401k-accounts [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-08-04 14:45:29 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-08-04 19:45:29 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.jacobwilliam.com/?p=66823 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 5 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66901 [post_author] => 125924 [post_date] => 2022-09-08 12:47:36 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-09-08 17:47:36 [post_content] => Ryan Yamada, CFP®, Senior Wealth Planner We’ve all heard the conventional wisdom when it comes to claiming Social Security: you should wait as long as you can before claiming benefits. Wait right up to age 70, if possible. After all, that’s when you would get the greatest monthly benefit. But that may not be the right move for some. What if I told you that, in some cases, taking your benefit sooner than later was the most ideal thing to do? I know it seems counterintuitive. But there are a few specific scenarios where that is just the advice I would give to clients. Let’s dig into a few of these scenarios individually.

Scenario #1: For Surviving Spouses

On a few somber occasions, we have had clients who have passed away before getting to fully enjoy their retirement. And while the earliest that someone can claim off of their worker or spousal benefit is at age 62, there is an exception for surviving spouses to claim a widower benefit as early as 60. Like a spousal benefit, the surviving widow is eligible for their deceased spouse’s Full Retirement Age amount. Claiming any earlier than Full Retirement Age reduces this amount. However, one unique strategy is that should the surviving spouse also have their own earnings history, claiming off a widower’s benefit could then allow one to delay their own worker’s benefit. Here’s an example to help illustrate. In this example, by continuing to delay their own worker benefits, the surviving spouse significantly increases their lifetime amounts. Additionally, recognizing the opportunity to claim benefits early using a survivor’s benefit could add extra years of cash flow and tens of thousands of dollars.

Scenario #2: You’re Entering Retirement During a Turbulent Market

You’re ready to retire. You’ve planned well and you have your spending plan all laid out. You’ve even decided to wait before filing for your Social Security benefits – allowing your investments to create an ‘income bridge’ - so that you can maximize your future monthly payment. Like many who are able to retire early, this is an ideal scenario for most retirees and one that we often recommend...in most years. But wait … it’s 2022. The market is down. And your portfolio has dropped 25%. Sometimes life doesn’t quite go according to plan. But that’s okay, it’s not time to panic. After all, the market was built to rebound. We just need to look at other ways to manage until that happens. In this scenario, we might consider taking Social Security earlier than anticipated. Especially for those clients without a cash buffer, access to home equity, or other means of ‘dry powder’, selling investments during a bear market is something we try to avoid. Tapping into your Social Security can provide much needed cash flow and allow your investment portfolio some time to recover. You’ll obviously take a slight hit on your lifetime Social Security benefit, but if that amount is smaller than the potential gain your investments could make over time, it’s a smarter play in the long run.

Scenario #3: You Wouldn’t Break Even by Waiting

When a pre-retiree is looking for advice on when to begin claiming Social Security, one common way to compare strategies is to calculate their “break-even” age. That’s essentially the age that they would need to live to in order to make the delay worthwhile. When waiting until age 70 to begin claiming Social Security, most people would need to live into their late-70s or even their early-80s to hit that point. If you have good reason to believe that longevity is not on your side, and you have no spouse or children who would depend on your benefit, you might want to consider claiming your Social Security sooner rather than later. While we never want to bet against our lives, it’s important to be realistic with your situation.

Talk to a Professional

Remember that a retirement income plan is a mixture of both financial and non-financial components unique to you. When considering any of these scenarios, insist on working with a Fiduciary advisor who specializes in this field. If you need help finding a financial advisor in your area, we can help. Contact us today. H2 subhead

Need Help With Social Security? Give Us a Call

Social Security can be complicated. Talk to a qualified financial advisor today to get professional advice today. Need help finding a financial advisor in your area? Give us a call today so we can match you with an advisor who will put your needs first. This blog is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific legal, tax, or other professional advice. For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor. Ryan Yamada is a non-registered associate of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC. [post_title] => Claiming Your Social Security Benefits Early: When It May Not Pay to Wait [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => claiming-your-social-security-benefits-early-when-it-may-not-pay-to-wait [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-23 07:27:45 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-23 12:27:45 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?p=65200 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => post [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [comment_count] => 0 [current_comment] => -1 [found_posts] => 457 [max_num_pages] => 92 [max_num_comment_pages] => 0 [is_single] => [is_preview] => [is_page] => [is_archive] => [is_date] => [is_year] => [is_month] => [is_day] => [is_time] => [is_author] => [is_category] => [is_tag] => [is_tax] => [is_search] => [is_feed] => [is_comment_feed] => [is_trackback] => [is_home] => 1 [is_privacy_policy] => [is_404] => [is_embed] => [is_paged] => [is_admin] => [is_attachment] => [is_singular] => [is_robots] => [is_favicon] => [is_posts_page] => [is_post_type_archive] => [query_vars_hash:WP_Query:private] => 6b5c18c1252b6c6a9f5f8613c74e0017 [query_vars_changed:WP_Query:private] => [thumbnails_cached] => [stopwords:WP_Query:private] => [compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => query_vars_hash [1] => query_vars_changed ) [compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => init_query_flags [1] => parse_tax_query ) [tribe_is_event] => [tribe_is_multi_posttype] => [tribe_is_event_category] => [tribe_is_event_venue] => [tribe_is_event_organizer] => [tribe_is_event_query] => [tribe_is_past] => )

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Download the checklist today to get started.

 
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                    [post_content] => Medicare can be a confusing topic for many. You can't simply sign up anytime you want – and your enrollment timeframe can depend on a variety of factors. To help you figure out when your eligibility begins, we have put together the following flowchart.

Download the checklist today to get started.

 
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                    [post_content] => Trillions of dollars will soon transfer from the Silent Generation and baby boomers to their adult children in what financial experts are calling “The Great Wealth Transfer.”

Are you one of the people expecting an inheritance in this historic transfer of wealth? Have you thought about the implications of receiving a tidy sum as a beneficiary?

Get ready and informed for your role as a beneficiary.

Download the checklist today to get started.

 
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                    [post_content] => The financial world is full of industry jargon and unfamiliar language that the average consumer may struggle to understand. This can be especially distressing during times of volatility, when we're all grappling for answers.

In this guide, we've broken down some of the most common phrases you might be hearing and reading to help you understand what's really being said.

Download the checklist today to get started.

 
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                    [post_content] => Gifting to your loved ones now or posthumously each carries their own positives and negatives as they relate to your estate plan, taxes, your goals and your legacy.

As you explore your options, refer to this guide. It offers a checklist, questions to ask your advisor and a conversation outline to help you communicate your wishes to your loved ones.

Download the checklist today to get started.

 
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Download the checklist today to get started.

 
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When Should I Start Claiming Social Security?

Determining what age to begin claiming your Social Security benefit can be a big decision. Do you claim early at age 62? Take it at your full retirement age? Or delay until age 70? There are a wide variety of factors that can go into your final decision, and you should always consult with a …
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                    [post_content] => Stocks had another rough week. The S&P 500 flirted with the June lows and swung back into bear market territory. Investors are worried about inflation, the Fed, the economy, the Russia-Ukraine war, among other market challenges.
  • The market is experiencing peak bearishness.
  • This coincides with peak hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, as it projects more interest rate hikes.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns that putting inflation behind us may not be painless.
  • A down swing in inflation could prompt the Fed to pause.
One potential positive is overall market sentiment is getting quite pessimistic, in some cases reaching levels last seen in March 2020 and even March 2009. Both periods presented major buying opportunities. Various sentiment polls are flashing extreme pessimism, which from a contrarian point of view could be quite bullish. The reasoning is once all the bears have sold, there are only buyers left. Considering October is known as a “bear market killer,” we continue to think major lows could be near. The stock market saw major lows in October in 1957, 1960, 1966, 1974, 1984, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2011. In fact, no month has seen more major market lows than October. We wouldn’t be surprised if 2022 joined this list. The Fed Wants to Get Inflation Behind Us, But There Isn’t a Painless Way to Do That An aggressive Federal Reserve raised its target policy rate by another 0.75%, taking it to the 3.0-3.25% range. This was the fifth hike this year and third successive 0.75% rate hike by a Fed looking to get on top of inflation. While it was largely expected, the big surprise was how high the Fed projected the interest rate to rise over the next year. In short, there’s more tightening to come. By the end of 2022, the Fed projects policy rates to reach 4.4%, a full percentage point above what was projected just three months ago in June. As of the end of 2023, the Fed now expects the target rate to hit 4.6%, about 0.8% above the previous projection. These projections have risen rapidly this year amid 40-year highs in inflation. Crucially, the Fed now projects staying at these high rates through 2024 at least. The Fed is strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and Fed members believe that is the key to sustaining a healthy economy and labor market over the long term. However, they also believe there is no painless way to do it, and that was a big takeaway from the meeting. It’s worth quoting Fed Chair Powell in full: “We’re never going to say that there are too many people working, but the real point is that people are really suffering from inflation. If we want another period of a very strong labor market, we have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t.” This came across in the Fed’s latest economic projections. It slashed estimates of 2022 GDP growth from 1.7% to 0.2%, and for 2023, from 1.7% to 1.2%. The Fed now expects unemployment to peak at 4.4% in 2023, up from the June projection of 3.9% (the rate is currently 3.7%). That translates to about 1.2 million more people losing their jobs. Up until June, central bankers were clearly hoping to get away with small upticks in the unemployment rate, i.e., a “soft landing.” No longer. The latest projections basically amount to a recession, although perhaps, a mild one. The problem is once unemployment starts to rise, it’s not exactly easy to cap it at a particular number. Are There Any Positives At All? Powell did lay out a scenario for a soft landing. It’s a challenging path, but not implausible in our view.
  1. The labor market is currently imbalanced, with demand outrunning supply. But job vacancies (representing demand) are at such a high level that they could potentially fall without much of an increase in unemployment. However, this would be a big break from what we’ve seen in the past, as falling vacancies have typically been associated with more layoffs. Also, workers quit their jobs at a much higher rate after the pandemic (for better-paying jobs), but that’s slowing down now. If this continues, it should also ease the supply-demand imbalance and associated wage pressures.
  2. Inflation expectations, both amongst consumers and market participants, have been well anchored. That means there’s no expectations-related inflation spiral. This occurs when people expect higher prices in the future, so they buy now to get ahead of inflation and, in turn, drive up prices.
  3. The current inflation has been partly caused by a series of supply shocks, beginning with the pandemic and the economic reopening, and amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war. These weren’t present in prior business cycles. Of course, the Fed expected to see supply-side healing by now, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The upward shift in rate projections is likely to be a one-time adjustment that reflects the current high inflation levels, as opposed to the beginning of a series of upward shifts. Several leading indicators point to easing supply-chain pressures and lower prices. It’s just going to take a little more time to show up in official inflation numbers. Just as an example, the Producer Price Index indicates that margins for auto dealers are falling quickly, which means prices for used cars should follow in short order. So, there is a high likelihood that the federal funds target rate (as projected) may rise above year-over-year inflation numbers within the first half of 2023. The chart below shows various projections for PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred measure), based on average monthly price changes over the next 15 months. This assumes the Fed will raise rates by another 0.75% in November, 0.50% in December and 0.25% in March 2023. In our view, the scenario in which price increases average 0.3% month-over-month is quite plausible. That would take PCE inflation down to 3.7% by mid-2023. Of course, this assumes there are no more shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war presented. That really is the key, as a convincing deceleration in prices is required for the Fed to pivot away from its current aggressive stance.   This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services. Compliance Case #01497141 [post_title] => Market Commentary: Things Are Bad, and That Could Be Good [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => market-commentary-things-are-bad-and-that-could-be-good [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-27 08:31:53 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-27 13:31:53 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?post_type=market-commentary&p=65269 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => market-commentary [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [1] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66977 [post_author] => 90034 [post_date] => 2022-09-19 09:03:21 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-09-19 14:03:21 [post_content] => The popular Green Day song titled “Wake Me Up When September Ends” feels quite appropriate given the recent market volatility. In fact, the S&P 500 has now dropped at least 3% for three of the past four weeks. As we’ve noted in this commentary, stocks tend to be quite volatile and potentially weak in September, and that is playing out once again in 2022.
  • It’s been another volatile September. We’ve seen this before, and it may not be over yet.
  • We expect there’s more room for interest rates to rise, especially if core inflation remains high.
  • The Fed is likely to raise interest rates by 0.75% in September, but the key will be how far the Fed will go.
  • Economic indicators, including retail sales, manufacturing, and unemployment claims, do not point toward a recession.
It isn’t all bad though. The last three months tend to do quite well in a midterm election year, so we are still optimistic an end-of-year rally is possible. One more positive is just how bad the action was on Tuesday. After the hotter-than-expected inflation data (more on that below), the S&P 500 fell 4.3% for the worst single day for stocks since June 2020. Along the way, less than 1% of the S&P 500 finished higher, one of the lowest readings in recent memory. This is the 20th time since 2000 that less than 1% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher on a single day. But only twice were stocks still down one year later, and the average return was a very solid 19.1%. Not to be outdone, every stock in the Nasdaq 100 closed red on Tuesday, for only the 13th time in history and the first time since March 12, 2020. But looking back at the index one year after this rare event shows the Nasdaq 100 was higher every time and up 21.2% on average. The bottom line is stocks will still be in a seasonally weak period for the next few weeks, so caution could be warranted. But the recent heavy selling is consistent with a market nearing bottom, and a strong year-end rally is still quite possible.

Interest Rates Could Keep Rising If Inflation Stays High

The August CPI report was not pretty. The headline number came in at 0.1%, pulled down by gas prices but higher than an expected -0.1% reading. The problem was core CPI, excluding food and energy, was 0.6%, twice what was expected. Tobacco, new vehicles, vehicle repairs, dental services, and hospital services all came in hotter than expected. Shelter costs continued to remain strong, while pandemic-impacted goods and services, including used/new cars, apparel, airfares, hotels, and furnishings, did not exert as much of a deflationary force as was expected by this time. There were still some positives. For starters, CPI likely peaked in June at more than 9% year-over-year and fell to 8.3% in August. It should continue to trend lower. We have seen huge drops in prices paid in various manufacturing surveys, improvements in time to delivery, and imploding used car prices. All these factors will feed into the official inflation numbers over the next few months. Nevertheless, markets were quick to react, as a hot inflation report led investors to expect the Fed to continue raising rates at a furious pace. Investors currently anticipate the federal funds rate to be raised as high as 4.2%. The white line in the chart below shows investor expectations for the fed funds rate, while the green line shows the median of the dots, which represent each Fed member’s estimate for where the policy rate will be in 2022 and beyond. As you can see, the green line for 2022 is well below the white line (investor expectations). The Fed has a meeting this week, and we will be watching how much higher Fed members move their estimates and whether they match the market’s expectations. Our view is the green line will shift higher, close to 4% or more. That is why we’re still cautious on our outlook for interest rates. We believe there’s room for rates across the spectrum to rise — on the back of higher policy rates. Short-term Treasury interest rates, which are a good approximation of monetary policy, have surged this year and are well above pre-crisis levels. After the August inflation report was released, one-year rates rose from 3.70% to 3.92%, while slightly longer-term five-year rates rose from 3.47% to 3.58%. So, they certainly are closer to where policy rates may get to but not quite there yet.

Still No Sign of Recession

Data last week showed consumer spending remains solid, with retail sales rising 0.3% in August. This was mostly driven by auto sales, although spending was strong in various other sectors, including restaurants and building material and supply stores. The only drag was gasoline station purchases, where sales fell 4%, but that was because gas prices fell. If anything, we’re surprised at the strength of retail sales, which mostly comprise spending on goods, even as the country puts COVID in the rearview mirror. Real retail sales, which are adjusted for prices, rose 0.2% in August and are almost 10% above the pre-crisis trend, with no sign of slowdown yet. Industrial production did slow in August, falling 0.2%. However, this was because of a large pullback in electric power output. The all-important manufacturing sector saw production tick higher by 0.1%, and that overcame a 1.4% decline in motor vehicle and parts production. This is another puzzle for us — supply chains are clearly improving, but vehicle production remains below pre-pandemic levels. This is entirely because auto production is down about 32%, while light vehicle truck production (like SUVs) is back where it was. At the beginning of the year, we expected a pickup in auto production, providing more of a tailwind to the economy. Finally, though certainly not the least important, unemployment claims continue to fall and remain well below pre-crisis levels. That means people getting laid off can find jobs quickly, without having to file for unemployment benefits — a sign of a very strong labor market. The downside is that increases the odds of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates to cool the economy down.   This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services. Compliance Case # 01489423 [post_title] => Market Commentary: Wake Me Up When September Ends [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => market-commentary-wake-me-up-when-september-ends [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-19 13:10:34 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-19 18:10:34 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://www.jacobwilliam.com/insights/market-commentary/market-commentary-wake-me-up-when-september-ends/ [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => market-commentary [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [2] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66911 [post_author] => 181806 [post_date] => 2022-09-12 10:08:56 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-09-12 15:08:56 [post_content] => It’s hard to believe, but we are less than two months away from midterm elections in early November. Given all the well-known worries this year — from inflation to the war in Ukraine, the economy to the bear market — most investors haven’t started to think about midterms quite yet. But we expect that to change as this important date nears. Key Points for the Week
  • Midterm elections are less than two months away, so expect talk about potential impact to heat up.
  • Midterm election years tend to be rough for stocks, but markets typically improve in the last quarter and into the following year.
  • Consumers are seeing some relief as gas prices fall, which should soften inflation numbers.
  • Unemployment claims data suggest the labor market remains strong.
Weakness is Typical for a Midterm Year Midterm election years are known for big stock market drops and weakness for most of the year, generally until late-year rallies. So far, that sounds a lot like 2022. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has corrected peak-to-trough more than 17% on average during the year. Out of the four-year presidential election cycle, midterm years typically see the largest corrections. Why? During his or her first year in office, a new president mostly enjoys a relatively smooth ride. It isn’t until the next year that bumps arrive. Toss in the uncertainty of the midterm elections (markets hate uncertainty) and conditions are ripe for trouble. As the chart below shows, stocks usually don’t do well under a first-term president in a midterm year. In this scenario, which is one of the weakest, the S&P 500 typically gains just more than 2% for the year. However, stocks typically do quite well the following year. In fact, a year after the midterm-year correction, stocks jump more than 30% on average. We think there’s a good chance June 16 was the lowest point for this calendar year, and that could leave many investors smiling into next year. Source: Carson Investment Research, YCharts 09/09/22 The bottom line is 2022 hasn’t been fun for investors. But it’s important to remember we’ve seen this before and there’s reason to expect better days ahead. How Will the Election Results Impact Markets? Investors often want to know which sectors will do well if one or the other party wins an election. Here’s the truth: It isn’t that simple. After President Donald Trump won in 2016, many investors expected steel, coal, and financials to do well, and technology to struggle. The opposite happened. When President Joe Biden won in 2020, the consensus was renewable energy would do well while coal and refiners would struggle. Again, the opposite happened. While there may be some value in following election results, be careful not to blindly follow the crowd’s expectations. Midterm elections are not typically favorable for the party in power. Since World War II, the controlling party has lost four seats in the Senate and 26 seats in the House on average. This year, Republicans only need five seats to flip the House and most strategists think this is quite possible. The Senate is split 50/50, but the open Senate seats are closely contested and considered a coin flip by many. What does this mean for investors? The best scenario for stocks is a Democratic president and Republican-controlled Congress (this was the case in the late 1990s under President Bill Clinton). A Democratic president with a split Congress has also generated solid returns in the past. Both scenarios suggest post-November, history will be with the bulls. On this subject, we prefer to take a broader view and share another important takeaway for investors. From the date of the midterm election going out one-year, the S&P 500 has been higher every single time since World War II. Not all years were up significantly, but a consistent gain and an average of 14.1% is worth noting. Consumer Confidence is Rising as Gas Prices Fall It’s as simple as that, as the chart below illustrates. Consumer confidence started falling in the summer of 2021 as gas prices climbed. Granted, the economy faced other challenges last summer, such as the spread of the COVID Delta variant. But the nationwide average gas price crossed the $3.0/gallon mark in May 2021 and rose steadily over the remainder of the year. All the while, consumer confidence moved lower, despite COVID fading into the background and economic data improving. Then, at the end of February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent commodity markets into a frenzy and surging global oil prices pushed gas prices above $4/gallon. March-April saw some relief, but issues with refining capacity in the U.S. sent gas prices to $5.0/gallon by mid-June. That was a 63% increase in one year. No wonder the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low of 50.0 in June. That’s lower than the start of the pandemic in March 2020 (72.3) and the depths of the financial crisis in 2008 (55.3). Even the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey, which is typically tied to the strength of the labor market, fell significantly, from 118 in April 2021 to 95 in July. But over the last four to eight weeks, sentiment indicators have picked up again just as gas prices have seen a steep fall, from $5/gallon to about $3.75. Consumer confidence tells us how consumers are feeling about the economy. And this is important because 70% of the U.S. economy is made up of consumer spending. Confident consumers can potentially fuel more spending and economic growth. On the other hand, if consumers are feeling down, they may save rather than spend, especially if they feel that poor economic conditions will eventually impact their personal finances. The Federal Reserve considers consumer sentiment, and especially consumer expectations for inflation, an important indicator. Fed members fear that rising inflation expectations will keep inflation higher for longer. The idea is if consumers expect more inflation, they will ask for higher wage increases, which will result in more spending and put upward pressure on prices, leading to a cycle of “spiraling inflation.” Now, inflation expectations rose over the past year, along with gas prices. But there is some good news as far as the Fed is concerned: Long-term inflation expectations (over the next five years) have fallen to 2.9%, and that is right at the three-decade average for this metric. Moreover, recent unemployment claims data suggest the labor market remains strong. Unemployed workers who are continuing to collect unemployment benefits now make up 1% of the labor force, which is a record low. This is not something we would expect if the economy were in a recession. Combine a strong labor market with easing price pressure, and we believe consumer confidence should continue rising as we head into the fall. This should give the Fed some breathing room as it increases rates to fight inflation, with slightly less risk of pushing the economy into a recession. This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Compliance Case #01484392     [post_title] => Market Commentary: The Election is Near [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => market-commentary-the-election-is-near [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-12 15:25:47 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-12 20:25:47 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?post_type=market-commentary&p=65212 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => market-commentary [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [3] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66887 [post_author] => 90034 [post_date] => 2022-09-06 11:59:19 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-09-06 16:59:19 [post_content] => It continues to be a challenging year for stocks, but all is not lost. We believe there could be some decisive gains before year-end. Let’s look back at two other midterm years that were similar to 2022 in more ways than one.
  • Historically, similar bad starts to midterm election years have been followed by stock market rallies late in the year.
  • More than 3.5 million jobs have been created over the first eight months of 2022, which is not typical of a recession.
  • September is no doubt a volatile and historically weak month. So, buckle up.
  • Supply chains are improving and gas prices are falling, signs that inflation has likely peaked in the U.S. Consumer confidence is also rising amid falling gas prices.
In 1962, first-term Democratic president John F. Kennedy faced a very tough midterm election, supply chain issues, Russia and the U.S. on the brink of war over a small island, Cuba (Taiwan today?), and a six-month 28% bear market without a recession. Sound familiar? Just for reference, the bear market this year corrected 24% in just more than five months. Stocks bottomed in late June 1962 but went on to nearly retest those lows during the Cuban missile crisis in late October. Stocks then soared 18% through the end of the year once the crisis calmed down. In 1982, the market experienced historically high inflation, another midterm year, low consumer confidence, high gas prices, an aggressive Fed, an economy in a recession, and more challenges with Russia. This time stocks lost 27% in a 21-month bear market. At the lowest point, stocks were down more than 16% for the year in mid-August, but then one of the strongest rallies in stock market history took over. In about four months, stocks made up all the losses from the previous 21 months. What sparked it? It was all about inflation showing signs of peaking and rolling over. Mark Twain said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Looking back at these two midterm years shows one key concept. We’ve had bad times before and stocks have bounced back. A lot of bad news is priced into the market right now, and should there be any good news on inflation, the war in Ukraine, the Fed, or the economy, there could be plenty of room for another late midterm-year rally in 2022.

A Positive Employment Report, In More Ways Than One

Good news did arrive last week in the form of the August employment report. This initially buoyed equities until news that Russia is cutting off gas supplies for Europe rocked markets late Friday — a reminder that global events can cause higher volatility over the short run. The economy created 315,000 jobs in August. Since these numbers can be revised, it’s more useful to look at the average over the last three months — job growth averaged 378,000 each month between June and August. The bigger picture is the economy has created 3.5 million jobs this year, and there are five months left to go. Average annual job growth since 1940 is about 1.5 million; 2.3 million when recessions are excluded. This is a very strong labor market. The August report also showed the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7%. In his Jackson Hole speech last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is focused on getting inflation down to its 2% target but that will involve bringing pain to households and businesses. So, are we starting to see signs of the pain Powell mentioned? Not really. The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed persons (those who are looking for a job) by the size of the labor force (employed + unemployed). In August, the ranks of unemployed increased but not because more people were laid off. It was because more people came back into the labor force and started looking for jobs. This is a good sign because it points to a more attractive labor market, certainly not something seen in a recession. The connection between employment and prices is wage growth, at least as the Fed sees it. And there is good reason for this. Inflation can be impacted by several factors, including global oil, food prices, and supply-chain disruptions — as we’re all familiar with at this point. Stripping out the goods impacted by these sorts of factors leaves us with services inflation. This is what the Fed is really concerned about, and historically in the U.S., strong wage growth has led to higher services inflation. But there was good news on this front, too. Average hourly earnings for private sector workers rose about 4% (at an annualized rate) in August, which is slower than the 5% rate it has averaged over the past year. It appears to be moving closer to the pre-crisis wage growth rate of about 3%. Slower wage growth is not great news if you are employed, especially considering the high levels of inflation. Falling gas prices are providing some relief; but from the Fed’s perspective, the best news in the August payroll report was that wage growth slowed. Many economists believe that for wage growth to slow, job openings have to fall — leading to slower employment gains and, ultimately, higher unemployment. So far, that’s not happening. Wage growth has slowed despite job openings remaining extremely elevated. Job openings listed by employers are running twice as high as the number of unemployed workers. Before the pandemic the ratio was about 1.2:1, i.e., 12 jobs listed for every 10 unemployed workers. Now it’s 2:1. Employment gains slowed in August, but it was always unlikely that job growth would continue running at half a million a month. Moreover, layoffs remain at record lows. All this is exactly the opposite of what would be expected. While it’s hard to pinpoint an exact reason, a significant factor may be that the economy is continuing to normalize after two years of massive pandemic-related shifts. The pandemic prompted workers to quit their jobs at a much higher rate. Some termed this the “Great Resignation,” but it was really the “Great Job Switch.” Workers did not quit their jobs to stop work. Instead, they quit to take another job — and, importantly, one with higher pay. Over the 12 months through July, “job switchers” saw wage gains of 6.7% on average, compared to 4.9% for “job stayers.” As the economy normalizes, this trend is reversing. Quits have fallen 7% since November, with most of that decline occurring over the past four months. That may be why wage growth is falling without unemployment rising in a significant way. That would be the ideal case for the Fed and the economy. If wage growth continues to fall, that is a good sign for the services part of inflation. It also means the Fed would not have to increase rates too much further. And if all that happens on the back of fewer quits as opposed to rising unemployment, that would indeed be the best case.   This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. S&P 500 INDEX The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. MSCI ACWI INDEX The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 23 emerging markets (EM) countries*. With 2,480 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. Compliance Case #01478809 [post_title] => What Year Is It? [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => what-year-is-it [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-06 13:53:22 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-06 18:53:22 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?post_type=market-commentary&p=65193 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => market-commentary [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [4] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66871 [post_author] => 90034 [post_date] => 2022-08-29 12:29:08 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-08-29 17:29:08 [post_content] => The S&P 500 recently soared more than 17% off its June 16 lows but found trouble near its 200-day moving average. This is perfectly normal, as stocks might need to catch their breath before the next move higher. That is the good news. The bad news is the calendar is doing no one any favors and more volatility could be in store.
  • September is historically one of the weakest months of the year for stocks, so buckle up.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed remains committed to bringing inflation down to its target 2%, which means we are going to see more rate hikes.
  • Market breadth remains quite strong; this could bode well for a continuation of the rally by year-end.
September has been one of the worst months of the year going all the way back to 1950. It is down 0.5% on average, with February the only other month routinely in the red. September has been the worst in the past 20 years and 10 years and is one of the weaker months in a midterm election year. Interestingly, June is the worst in a midterm year, and that sure played out this year. So, why is September so poor for stocks? There are many theories. One is big traders finally get back from the Hamptons after Labor Day and begin to sell. The other is many hedge funds and institutions have their year-end in October, so they sell for tax reasons. Of course, we could ask why they don’t just sell in October, but we’ll leave that for another day. The bottom line is investors need to understand that seasonality plays a part in the overall cycle of the stock market, and this September could be rocky and volatile. But take one more look at the chart above. Some of the best months of the year are coming up, so a little more pain for some nice end-of-year gain might not be so bad. The Fed Will Keep At It Until the Job is Done So said Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his much-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Symposium speech. The “job” in this case refers to getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target, which is really about achieving price stability, as Powell and company see it. In their view, without price stability the economy will not be able to achieve a sustained period of strong employment. However, there will be unfortunate costs. Powell admitted that getting inflation back to target will bring pain to households and businesses, which are already struggling with higher interest rates, below-trend economic growth, and softer labor market conditions. But failing to restore price stability would be worse. The Fed lifted interest rates by 200 basis points over just three months, taking it to the 2.25-2.5% range (1 basis point or 1 bps = 0.01%). After the July meeting, Powell said Fed members thought rates had reached a moderately restrictive level. And at the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell added that getting inflation back to target will require sufficiently restrictive policy for quite some time. Translation: The Fed is going to continue raising rates and will keep them there for a while. The pace of interest rate hikes will eventually slow, but the level of rates will stay higher for longer. At the same time, data dependency means markets will parse each data point for clues as to how high they will go and how long they will stay there. Last week the PCE price index report (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) showed prices falling 0.1% in July. Core PCE, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, was also much lower than expected, rising just 0.1%. This is welcome news, but Powell was clear that one month of improvement is not enough. Inflation may continue to ease over the next few months, as pandemic-impacted services, such as airfares and hotel prices, and vehicle prices exert a deflationary force on inflation. If that happens, the question is how much softening would the Fed need to see before backing off its current path? Therein lies the uncertainty. Let’s Leave on Some Good News The Fed, inflation, the economy, and war in Eastern Europe are just a few of the many issues for investors to worry about. But a very strong technical development occurred recently that might bring some calm to the myriad of concerns. Market breadth, defined simply, is how many stocks are going up or down at one time. In a solid bull market, many stocks must participate for the move to have lasting power. Additionally, breadth tends to lead price, so if many stocks are performing well (strong market breadth), then the odds favor the overall indexes to follow suit. Now for the good news. The S&P 500 advance/decline line recently made a new all-time high. An advance/decline line is simply how many stocks are going up versus down each day, which is then tallied up over time. What investors need to know is new highs in breadth can often signal new highs in the overall index. The chart below shows the last seven times this indicator made a new high for the first time after a period (four months) of no new highs. Although some periods of weakness followed initially, after one year stocks were higher every single time, up 15.6% on average. This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. S&P 500 INDEX The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. MSCI ACWI INDEX The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 23 emerging markets (EM) countries*. With 2,480 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. Compliance Case # 01472002 [post_title] => Market Commentary: The Worst Month of the Year Is Here [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => market-commentary-the-worst-month-of-the-year-is-here [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-08-30 08:31:31 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-08-30 13:31:31 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?post_type=market-commentary&p=65179 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => market-commentary [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) ) [post_count] => 5 [current_post] => -1 [in_the_loop] => [post] => WP_Post Object ( [ID] => 66957 [post_author] => 90034 [post_date] => 2022-09-26 08:50:11 [post_date_gmt] => 2022-09-26 13:50:11 [post_content] => Stocks had another rough week. The S&P 500 flirted with the June lows and swung back into bear market territory. Investors are worried about inflation, the Fed, the economy, the Russia-Ukraine war, among other market challenges.
  • The market is experiencing peak bearishness.
  • This coincides with peak hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, as it projects more interest rate hikes.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns that putting inflation behind us may not be painless.
  • A down swing in inflation could prompt the Fed to pause.
One potential positive is overall market sentiment is getting quite pessimistic, in some cases reaching levels last seen in March 2020 and even March 2009. Both periods presented major buying opportunities. Various sentiment polls are flashing extreme pessimism, which from a contrarian point of view could be quite bullish. The reasoning is once all the bears have sold, there are only buyers left. Considering October is known as a “bear market killer,” we continue to think major lows could be near. The stock market saw major lows in October in 1957, 1960, 1966, 1974, 1984, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2011. In fact, no month has seen more major market lows than October. We wouldn’t be surprised if 2022 joined this list. The Fed Wants to Get Inflation Behind Us, But There Isn’t a Painless Way to Do That An aggressive Federal Reserve raised its target policy rate by another 0.75%, taking it to the 3.0-3.25% range. This was the fifth hike this year and third successive 0.75% rate hike by a Fed looking to get on top of inflation. While it was largely expected, the big surprise was how high the Fed projected the interest rate to rise over the next year. In short, there’s more tightening to come. By the end of 2022, the Fed projects policy rates to reach 4.4%, a full percentage point above what was projected just three months ago in June. As of the end of 2023, the Fed now expects the target rate to hit 4.6%, about 0.8% above the previous projection. These projections have risen rapidly this year amid 40-year highs in inflation. Crucially, the Fed now projects staying at these high rates through 2024 at least. The Fed is strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and Fed members believe that is the key to sustaining a healthy economy and labor market over the long term. However, they also believe there is no painless way to do it, and that was a big takeaway from the meeting. It’s worth quoting Fed Chair Powell in full: “We’re never going to say that there are too many people working, but the real point is that people are really suffering from inflation. If we want another period of a very strong labor market, we have got to get inflation behind us. I wish there were a painless way to do that. There isn’t.” This came across in the Fed’s latest economic projections. It slashed estimates of 2022 GDP growth from 1.7% to 0.2%, and for 2023, from 1.7% to 1.2%. The Fed now expects unemployment to peak at 4.4% in 2023, up from the June projection of 3.9% (the rate is currently 3.7%). That translates to about 1.2 million more people losing their jobs. Up until June, central bankers were clearly hoping to get away with small upticks in the unemployment rate, i.e., a “soft landing.” No longer. The latest projections basically amount to a recession, although perhaps, a mild one. The problem is once unemployment starts to rise, it’s not exactly easy to cap it at a particular number. Are There Any Positives At All? Powell did lay out a scenario for a soft landing. It’s a challenging path, but not implausible in our view.
  1. The labor market is currently imbalanced, with demand outrunning supply. But job vacancies (representing demand) are at such a high level that they could potentially fall without much of an increase in unemployment. However, this would be a big break from what we’ve seen in the past, as falling vacancies have typically been associated with more layoffs. Also, workers quit their jobs at a much higher rate after the pandemic (for better-paying jobs), but that’s slowing down now. If this continues, it should also ease the supply-demand imbalance and associated wage pressures.
  2. Inflation expectations, both amongst consumers and market participants, have been well anchored. That means there’s no expectations-related inflation spiral. This occurs when people expect higher prices in the future, so they buy now to get ahead of inflation and, in turn, drive up prices.
  3. The current inflation has been partly caused by a series of supply shocks, beginning with the pandemic and the economic reopening, and amplified by the Russia-Ukraine war. These weren’t present in prior business cycles. Of course, the Fed expected to see supply-side healing by now, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The upward shift in rate projections is likely to be a one-time adjustment that reflects the current high inflation levels, as opposed to the beginning of a series of upward shifts. Several leading indicators point to easing supply-chain pressures and lower prices. It’s just going to take a little more time to show up in official inflation numbers. Just as an example, the Producer Price Index indicates that margins for auto dealers are falling quickly, which means prices for used cars should follow in short order. So, there is a high likelihood that the federal funds target rate (as projected) may rise above year-over-year inflation numbers within the first half of 2023. The chart below shows various projections for PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred measure), based on average monthly price changes over the next 15 months. This assumes the Fed will raise rates by another 0.75% in November, 0.50% in December and 0.25% in March 2023. In our view, the scenario in which price increases average 0.3% month-over-month is quite plausible. That would take PCE inflation down to 3.7% by mid-2023. Of course, this assumes there are no more shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war presented. That really is the key, as a convincing deceleration in prices is required for the Fed to pivot away from its current aggressive stance.   This newsletter was written and produced by CWM, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of any other named entity and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. S&P 500 – A capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The NASDAQ 100 Index is a stock index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization traded on NASDAQ Stock Market. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services. Compliance Case #01497141 [post_title] => Market Commentary: Things Are Bad, and That Could Be Good [post_excerpt] => [post_status] => publish [comment_status] => closed [ping_status] => closed [post_password] => [post_name] => market-commentary-things-are-bad-and-that-could-be-good [to_ping] => [pinged] => [post_modified] => 2022-09-27 08:31:53 [post_modified_gmt] => 2022-09-27 13:31:53 [post_content_filtered] => [post_parent] => 0 [guid] => https://carsonhub.wpengine.com/?post_type=market-commentary&p=65269 [menu_order] => 0 [post_type] => market-commentary [post_mime_type] => [comment_count] => 0 [filter] => raw ) [comment_count] => 0 [current_comment] => -1 [found_posts] => 131 [max_num_pages] => 27 [max_num_comment_pages] => 0 [is_single] => [is_preview] => [is_page] => [is_archive] => [is_date] => [is_year] => [is_month] => [is_day] => [is_time] => [is_author] => [is_category] => [is_tag] => [is_tax] => [is_search] => [is_feed] => [is_comment_feed] => [is_trackback] => [is_home] => 1 [is_privacy_policy] => [is_404] => [is_embed] => [is_paged] => [is_admin] => [is_attachment] => [is_singular] => [is_robots] => [is_favicon] => [is_posts_page] => [is_post_type_archive] => [query_vars_hash:WP_Query:private] => a903a142677fece24840fa13db0e14fd [query_vars_changed:WP_Query:private] => [thumbnails_cached] => [stopwords:WP_Query:private] => [compat_fields:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => query_vars_hash [1] => query_vars_changed ) [compat_methods:WP_Query:private] => Array ( [0] => init_query_flags [1] => parse_tax_query ) [tribe_is_event] => [tribe_is_multi_posttype] => [tribe_is_event_category] => [tribe_is_event_venue] => [tribe_is_event_organizer] => [tribe_is_event_query] => [tribe_is_past] => )

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                    [post_content] => Optimizing your Social Security benefits can have a big impact on your quality of life in retirement.  

Carson’s Senior Wealth Planner Ryan Yamada hosted the webinar How to Optimize Social Security, which is now available on-demand. 
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                    [post_content] => You probably have questions on the newly signed into law Inflation Reduction Act. You hear about it on the news and wonder what impact it can potentially have on the market – and your wallet. Get your questions answered in our webinar on the Inflation Reduction Act, now available on-demand.
                    [post_title] => Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
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                    [post_content] => Watch this webinar hosted by Carson’s Matt Lewis, Vice President, Insurance, as he dives into the Medicare.
                    [post_title] => Maximizing Medicare: A Strategic Approach to Health Care in Retirement
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                    [post_content] => Watch this webinar hosted by Carson’s Scott Kubie, Senior Investment Strategist, and Patrick Sittner, Portfolio Strategist, as they dive into the quarterly market outlook.
                    [post_title] => Q3 2022 Quarterly Market Outlook
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                    [post_content] => Carson Partners’ Scott Kubie shares key events we saw in the past quarter and how we think they’ll affect markets in the upcoming quarter. Contact us to speak with a financial advisor.

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Videos

Videos

How to Optimize Social Security

Optimizing your Social Security benefits can have a big impact on your quality of life in retirement.   Carson’s Senior Wealth Planner Ryan Yamada hosted the webinar How to Optimize Social Security, which is now available on-demand. 
Continue Reading!
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                    [post_content] => By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions

Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion for photography and spending time with her son and her grandkids.

The pandemic changed everything. Her son contracted COVID-19 in the early days of the pandemic. His health deteriorated quickly and he died at only 35 years old. He didn’t have life insurance. A gig worker without a 401(k), he had very minimal retirement savings.

Rose’s grandchildren, ages 2 and 6, joined the more than 140,000 U.S. children under the age of 18 who lost their primary or secondary caregiver due to the pandemic from April 2020 through June 2021. That’s approximately one out of every 450 children under age 18 in the United States.

Rose’s ex-daughter-in-law battles drug addiction and had lost custody of the kids during the divorce, so Rose became the children’s primary caregiver. She quickly discovered that caring for young children as an older adult is more physically challenging than when she raised her son, so she made the difficult decision to leave her part-time job to have the energy to care for her active grandchildren. She wants to do everything for these kids who have lost so much — but it puts her financial security at risk.

Sadly, she is far from alone.

Read the full article
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                    [post_content] => By: Erin Wood, CFP®, CRPC®, FBS®, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning, Carson Group

 

Laura and Caroline are in their late 50s. Friends since meeting at a playgroup for their toddlers, both were in long-term, seemingly happy marriages. Laura married her high school sweetheart right after they graduated from college and worked as an RN while her husband attended medical school. When their first child was born, Laura decided to become a stay-at-home parent. She just celebrated sending her last child off to college and was looking forward to enjoying an empty nest with her husband.

Already established in her career as an accountant for a large insurance firm, Caroline married a bit later, at 33. Today, she’s a financial controller for the same firm. Her spouse owns his own landscaping business. Caroline is the high-wage earner in the family.

Unfortunately, both women are now surprised to be facing a “gray” divorce: a divorce involving couples in their 50s or older. Each will need to make some tough choices as they deal with the emotional devastation of unraveling a long-term marriage. Although my focus as a financial planner is to help my clients find their financial footing during and after divorce, I also encourage clients to build a strong network of family and friends as well as a therapist or clergy person to offer critical emotional support during this time.

Read full article on Kiplinger.com

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In the News

In the News

COVID’s Financial Toll Isn’t What You Think

By Erin Wood, Senior Vice President, Financial Planning and Advanced Solutions Just a few years ago, Rose retired with a decent-sized 401(k). With some careful budgeting and a part-time job, her retirement finances were on track. Rose was looking forward to traveling, reigniting her passion …
Continue Reading!